NASA Issues Warning: City-Killer Asteroid Has a 1 in 32 Chance of Hitting Earth in 2032
NASA says there's now a 1 in 32 chance (or 3.1%) that a big asteroid could hit Earth in 2032—enough to destroy a whole city.
On February 7, NASA raised the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in seven years from 1.2% to 2.3%. The chances later increased to 2.6% and are now at 3.1%, based on NASA’s latest data.
This asteroid is about 177 feet (54 meters) wide, roughly the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa. While it’s too small to wipe out all of humanity, it could still destroy a major city, releasing 8 megatons of energy—more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
The good news? There’s still a 96.9% chance it will miss Earth, and as scientists track its path more closely, the risk is expected to drop to 0%. There’s also a small 0.3% chance it could hit the moon instead.
Scientists use something called the Torino Scale to measure asteroid risk. YR4 is rated a 3 out of 10, meaning it has a real chance of impact (over 1%) and could cause serious local damage. But in the past, many asteroids with similar risks were later found to have a 0% chance of impact after further study.
To get better data, a team of scientists has been given special access to the James Webb Space Telescope, the most powerful telescope ever built, to study YR4 in the coming months.
Right now, YR4 is the only asteroid with more than a 1% chance of hitting Earth. If it does hit, NASA says it would likely crash somewhere in the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, or South Asia. However, the impact is still very unlikely.
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